The COVID-19 pandemic undoubtedly disrupted public education nationwide with the move to remote learning. This exacerbated educational inequalities and led to declines in student achievement, as well as shifts in student enrollment.
Post-pandemic, public school enrollment trends show a decline, influenced by increased homeschooling and private and charter school enrollments. Many parents of public school students have lingering concerns about future outbreaks of viruses like COVID-19.
Stacey Park, the assistant superintendent and chief academic officer for Roaring Fork School District, recently discussed current student enrollment numbers with The Sopris Sun.
“While a couple of schools are experiencing a slow increase in enrollment, most schools are relatively flat or experiencing a moderate decline. In 2020, we lost about 300 students at the pandemic’s start and are slowly returning to pre-pandemic numbers.” Park stated, “We currently serve approximately 220 fewer students district-wide than we [did] pre-pandemic. Some grades may have larger enrollment for one year, but that moves up with that cohort as they move up in grade levels.”
Data released in February by the National Center for Education Statistics — the primary entity responsible for collecting, analyzing and reporting educational data for the U.S. Department of Education — revealed that pre-K through eighth grade enrollment dropped by 4% between 2019 and 2022, while enrollment in ninth through 12th grades increased by about 2%.
In Colorado, the “October Count” determines state funding based on the number of students enrolled and attending school on a specific day in October. Park emphasized the importance of monitoring these counts and accounting for continuous enrollment changes throughout the year.
Park said they keep a close eye on several numbers, including average enrollment over the past five years, and anticipate a certain percentage of attrition.
School districts use demographers to project student numbers by analyzing birth rates, housing developments, migration patterns, economic conditions and historical enrollment trends. Park highlighted that high costs of living in areas like the Roaring Fork Valley impact enrollment, particularly in lower-level grades, as financially stressed and younger families often relocate to more affordable areas.
Park shared that the district’s last projected enrollment was conducted about a decade ago, and they are considering bringing in a demographer again for long-term planning and budgeting. These projections assist in making informed decisions about the feasibility of building new schools, redrawing attendance boundaries or hiring additional teachers and staff.
“Some [Roaring Fork] schools have larger grade levels than others, while smaller in other grade levels. Broadly speaking, schools have projected enrollments based on five-year averages,” Park explained. “Roaring Fork High School has had a marked increase for ninth grade over the past two years, but has also experienced attrition in other grade levels as cohorts move through the grades.”
Park noted that student registration and withdrawal numbers constantly fluctuate with many students, particularly those entering kindergarten, sixth and ninth grades, often registering just before the school year begins.
“That is what we’re trying to anticipate as well. We have current numbers, but we know we’ll get more changes in the summer,” Park concluded.