Coffee prices have jumped in recent months, affecting businesses and customers worldwide. The increase comes from a deadly combination of poor climate conditions in major coffee-growing countries, higher labor and production costs and global economic conflict.

Brazil produces more Arabica coffee beans than any other country in the world, but severe droughts have hurt the country’s supply in recent months. Over the past 14 months, coffee prices in Brazil have almost doubled. Arabica futures reached an all-time high of $4.30 per pound on Feb. 11, and robusta beans are also at record highs. Brazil’s farmers have no choice but to sell almost all of their stock early, leaving major suppliers with very little inventory.

“Across the board, we are seeing a significant increase in cost for coffee harvested this year. Because coffee is an agricultural product, there is a lag in the market where we are between last year’s harvest and this year’s,” said Scott Van Daalen, former Colorado-based barista and founder of Tapestry Coffee in Apple Valley, Minnesota. “This year’s coffee is set to arrive in the United States between this month and May based on the country of origin of the coffee beans, processing methods and shipping timelines.”

Vietnam, the second-largest coffee producer in the world, has also struggled with extreme weather. Droughts and floods have lowered its coffee supply, making the global shortage even worse.

“The main factors for the rising prices of coffee come down to farming conditions and political issues. In the primary countries of origin, there have been droughts, frost and other issues that affect the coffee yield,” Van Daalen said. “For instance, Brazil, which is the highest country of yield, has had their forecasted yield lowered by 11 million bags of coffee a year over the past two years due to droughts and other factors. This creates an increase in demand as the supply drops.”

But it’s not just weather problems or basic supply and demand to blame. The operating cost of running a coffee business has skyrocketed. In the United Kingdom, businesses are expected to raise prices because of higher wages, new packaging rules and increased taxes. These added expenses are expected to cost businesses around £7 billion per year (roughly $9 billion), which will likely be passed on to customers.

Global conflicts have also played a role in rising coffee prices. Ongoing fighting in the Red Sea region has slowed down shipping routes, making it harder and more expensive to transport coffee.

Van Daalen said these price increases aren’t yet fully reflected in what consumers pay, but it won’t be long now. “This means the most significant price increases are still to come for many companies. At Tapestry Coffee, we are seeing a massive increase in almost every coffee,” he said. “We are sourcing the same Ethiopian coffee from the same farm as last year, yet it will likely have an increase of around $.60 to $.75 per pound as a green [not yet roasted] coffee. This will likely equate to about a $2 to $3 per pound increase to consumers.”

In the U.S., coffee prices have already been creeping up quite a latte, with imported coffee now costing 65% more than in 2021. Retail coffee prices have also gone up by 20% since last year and analysts predict prices could climb another 10-25% soon.

Italy is also feeling the effects of rising coffee costs. At a well-known cafe in Milan, an espresso now costs €1.90, which is well above the country’s average of €1.18. Many worry that prices could soon hit €2. In the past, Italy had some of the lowest coffee prices in the world due to government regulations, but the rising cost of coffee beans has made it harder for businesses to keep their prices low.

With coffee prices showing no sign of going back down any time soon, businesses and customers are bracing for the worst. While some cafes are trying to absorb the extra costs, many have no choice but to raise prices. For now, it might be wise for coffee lovers to give tea a fighting chance.