Weather cycles have made the past few months feel unseasonable in the Roaring Fork Valley. Strong storm cycles have dropped a foot or more of snow at a time, but these have been interspersed with warmer-than-typical high pressure systems that felt like false springs. Sunny days and temperatures in the 40s and 50s melt snow and warm exposed ground, which can set a foundation for quicker melt-out, especially at lower elevations.
From the 1990s through 2021, average winter temperatures in the region stayed mostly below freezing. The historical range for December and January is between 10 and 34 degrees Fahrenheit. February ranges for the past 30 years are only slightly milder, with temperature ranges of 13 to 37 degrees Fahrenheit.
This past December, average temperatures ranged between 13 and 36 degrees Fahrenheit. Minimum and maximum temperature differences were broader, with lows around 0 and nine days with high temperatures in the 40s. January, by contrast, was substantially colder, with an average range of 3 to 28 degrees Fahrenheit. The gap between minimum and maximum temperatures was even broader, with a minimum low of -17 degrees and four days with high temperatures in the 40s.
February’s data for 2025 shows a greater change than the preceding months, with average temperatures between 18 and 40 degrees Fahrenheit, but a difference of 67 degrees between minimum and maximum, with a low temperature of -8 and a high of 59 degrees.
One associated pattern with these temperature swings, particularly the multi-day stretches of high temperatures above freezing, is that Colorado statewide snowpack has been trending slightly below average despite storm systems dropping inches to feet of snow at a time. At the end of February, the state average snowpack was just below 90% of average, with regions north of the Roaring Fork Valley around 100% of average and the southern portion of the state between 64% and 89% of average.
Especially in the northern half of the state, snowpack percentages increased significantly with mid-February storms. The remainder of winter and the start to spring will help shape the coming summer. March through May are historically the highest precipitation months in Colorado, but are also the months with the broadest differences in data. Based on data from the Natural Resources Conservation Service, winters with similar snowpack levels in early March can go a number of directions.
In 2012 and 2015, statewide snowpack stopped rising after the first week of March. In the latter year, snowpack decreased gradually, bolstered by significant precipitation in late April through May, and summer started with average levels of remaining snowpack in the high elevations. In 2012, however, late winter and spring months remained warm and dry, and data shows that season as one of the driest recorded in Colorado. The summer of 2012 was the first with over 6,000 recorded wildfires, an increase of some 900 fires over any previously documented year.
In 2007, 2010, 2021 and 2024, winters with similar snowpack patterns to this year saw a solid precipitation increase during spring months. During all four of those years, Colorado snowpack continued to increase until mid-April, then slowly dissipated until late June.
The immediate effects of low snowpack in March can include an early end to cross-country ski trail access on popular trail systems like Spring Gulch and the Aspen-Snowmass trail systems. Both struggled during the warm high pressure systems in February. The Aspen Parks department has ceased maintaining the snow on the Rio Grande Trail for this winter. Longer term impacts can show via early blooming of wild flora and wildlife venturing closer to human proximity earlier in the spring.
There is still more snow to come in the Roaring Fork Valley. Colorado meteorologists anticipate several more storm systems in March. What remains to be seen is how accurate models will be relative to total precipitation, and whether air temperatures and ground temperatures make it possible for that additional precipitation to accumulate.
Keep your jackets and snow shovels handy, but it wouldn’t hurt to also tune up your bikes. Snowpack data back to 1987 and a variety of other precipitation models can be explored at the Colorado page of the Natural Resources Conservation Service website.