Secondary education schools are experiencing a balloon effect: deflation. Enrollment hasn’t increased dramatically in recent years, but numbers were slowly growing. That is starting to change, and local school districts are preparing for what smaller student numbers will mean moving forward. The Sopris Sun spoke with Roaring Fork School District (RFSD) and Aspen School District (ASD) superintendents Dr. Anna Cole and Tharyn Mulberry, respectively, to learn more.
Colorado has one of the lowest birth rates in the country — around 52 births for every 1,000 women of childbearing age. New births in the state have hovered around 62,000 annually for the past several years. Colorado’s birth rate peaked in 2007 at approximately 70,000 births. Studies indicate that there is a correlation between women with a college degree having fewer children, and later in life. Last year, Colorado was ranked as the most-educated state in the country, with 62.9% of residents holding at least one degree or certificate above a high school diploma.
These are not the only factors behind declining school enrollments. Cost of living has played a steadily clearer role when it comes to where parents choose to live and send their children to school. Many parents who have long commutes to work face the choice of enrolling their child in the district where they live or the area where they work.
Superintendent Mulberry said ASD has been watching the decline through the schools. “We were actually up 30 students this year, but that was an odd spike. There’s been a pretty low birthrate in the Aspen area lately, which is fairly indicative of kindergarten enrollment,” he noted, before contrasting Aspen High School’s classes with smaller middle school numbers.
“Right now we’re anticipating a large incoming ninth grade class of around 160, but the sixth grade class is only 109 and numbers decline from there. We’ll be down in the 1,200 to 1,300s in the next ten years from around the 1,550s now,” Mulberry added.
Superintendent Cole spoke less to anecdotal observations and instead shared projections a demographer presented at a recent school board meeting.
“In early October 2024, we received a report from Shannon Bingham, a demographer we contracted with to project enrollments. Bingham’s report was the first comprehensive picture we had as to enrollments for the next 5 to 10 years.” Cole added that the report confirmed staff observations. “Key reasons for the decline shared by Bingham include birth rates, cost of living and loss of students to neighboring school districts.”
Both leaders want to ensure stability and opportunities for students and staff in their districts. Mulberry noted that the highest numbers of Aspen students come from affordable housing areas of the district, though the school does absorb new students from wealthy backgrounds when families move here for circumstantial reasons. “We see occasional enrollment spikes from natural disasters and various factors,” he shared. “There was a big enrollment spike from COVID … With environmental and health disasters, some wealthy second homeowners make their Aspen home their primary home.” He added that his district has several new students from families whose LA homes were damaged or destroyed in January’s wildfires.
Cole is focused on thoughtful and accurate planning to ensure that RFSD serves families well and optimizes its available budget. “We will have to be much more conservative in our student enrollment projections (which directly correlate to revenue), school staffing levels and budget assumptions,” she shared. “This will take careful collaboration with staff, students, families and community members as we work to ‘right size’ our schools and departments to serve a declining student population and still make sure we are delivering on our mission to ensure every student thrives.”
Cole also noted the importance of community conversations and creative solution-building. “I think it is important for our community to understand that it will continue to get more and more difficult to recruit and retain high-quality teachers who reflect the diversity of students and our community,” she explained. “It will also continue to become more difficult to provide robust and diverse programming at increasingly small schools. We will need to continue to develop creative, collaborative solutions to ensure that we are providing high-quality schools where all children thrive.”
Despite concerns about the trend and the necessary planning to mitigate it, both Cole and Mulberry see some silver linings.
Said Cole, “Recent financial issues have challenged our teams to strengthen accountability and transparency efforts. They have pushed us to tighten practices and focus on the work that is most essential to meet our goals. These practices will be essential as we continue to navigate a declining enrollment (and declining revenue) environment. I am confident that our leaders, staff and community can continue to come together to find creative solutions in the best interest of students.”