Colorado and Roaring Fork Valley snowpack plummeted in March, due to a combination of above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation. Early in the month, watershed nonprofit Roaring Fork Conservancy (RFC) raised alarms in a community newsletter, highlighting that snowpack in the Valley was at 65% of normal on March 4, with average site depths of 8.7 inches — 4.7 inches lower than the historical median.
By March 26, that snowpack data dropped to 36% of normal. RFC believes that the melting through March indicates that the region reached peak snowpack for the winter on March 10, with 9.3 inches of snow water equivalent (SWE). The Roaring Fork Valley historically reaches peak snowpack in early April, with an average of 17.1 inches SWE. Barring significant April or May storms, RFC anticipates that this year will break the previously documented record for lowest peak snowpack, set in 2012 at 11.4 inches SWE.
Earlier this month, Aspen Journalism reported that February temperatures in Aspen broke records; the month-average of 31.6 degrees Fahrenheit, based on Aspen-Pitkin County Airport data, is about 6 degrees above average. The airport is a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) station and began collecting climate data in 1998.
Measurements indicate that the total precipitation up valley, from November through February, was the lowest in 30 years, and among the driest ever recorded. The airport-based temperature sensor recorded 89 days at above-average maximum temperatures, or daytime highs, during the 120-day period, and 94 days with above-average minimum temperatures, or nighttime lows, during that same period.
So over three-quarters of the temperature measurements during that time frame were above average. Those temperatures differ so much from historical measurements that local meteorologists and state-level climate scientists have predicted that 2026 is likely to be a record-setting outlier for years, despite the observed warming trend over decades.
Though more precipitation is imminent, consistent with the current low-pressure system and additional forecast April storms, local environmental organizations doubt that snowpack in the Roaring Fork Valley will return to, or surpass, the March 10 measurement. From March 19 to March 26, SNOTEL sites throughout the Valley measured daytime temperatures at 15 degrees warmer than average, which has contributed to rapid snowmelt and significantly above-average river flows for this time of year. RFC reported that the McClure Pass and Schofield Pass SNOTEL sites, at the headwaters of the Crystal River, lost 6 inches and 4.1 inches of SWE, respectively, that same week.
These rapid changes are impacting local recreation and the economy. Sunlight Resort, Buttermilk and Aspen Highlands all closed earlier than planned due to rapid meltoff. Sunlight, located southwest of Glenwood Springs, closed on March 22 due to lack of snowpack. The resort had originally planned to stay open until April 5. Buttermilk, the lowest of the Aspen-Snowmass resorts, closed on March 25 with only two days notice, given increasing hazards from rapid melting. It had also intended to continue operations until April 5.
Aspen Highlands’ planned closing date was set to be April 12. The mountain’s famous closing-weekend parties typically bring hundreds of revelers to the Valley to celebrate the season alongside locals. Like Buttermilk, the mountain’s early closing was officially announced with only 48 hours notice. Highlands closed on March 29.
While both Snowmass and Aspen Mountain remain open as of March 31, high temperatures and rapid melting have contributed to skepticism as to whether the resorts will make it to the intended closing dates of April 12 and April 19, respectively.
The Roaring Fork Watershed remains in “exceptional” drought, the most severe rating by the United States Drought Monitor. The rest of Pitkin and Eagle counties, and much of Garfield County, are in extreme drought, making the region (including bordering Summit, Grand, Routt and Rio Blanco counties) one of the worst drought areas in the Western United States. Basalt is following the example of Front Range communities, implementing stage 1 water restrictions starting Wednesday, April 1, in anticipation of continued water stress through the spring.