The 8-10 acre fire that spread from a Carbondale agricultural burn in late March is not common. But it’s also not uncommon.
That’s according to Carbondale & Rural Fire Protection District Fire Chief Rob Goodwin, who said agricultural burns often begin in March and April, and can escape their set margins under windy conditions — as is what happened at 6000 Highway 133, roughly five miles south of Carbondale, on March 26.
The party ignited a controlled agricultural burn in their ditches, which is commonly done before turning a ranch’s water on to free the flow of debris. Goodwin said they had notified the fire district of the controlled burn before beginning.
“Later in the afternoon, the winds picked up, and a piece of it [the fire] escaped and expanded across one of their agricultural fields,” he said.
The party notified the emergency dispatch center at 3:20pm and the first Carbondale Fire unit arrived on scene at 3:31pm. Responders were able to stop the spread within 30 minutes and surround the fire with a control line within an hour, keeping it from leaving the cultivated field of the property. They extinguished it by 6:51pm.
“It’s not super uncommon for that to happen,” Goodwin said of an agricultural burn escaping its perimeters but remaining on the cultivated land. “To have a wildland fire that goes ripping up the hill and all that — that would be uncommon in March.”
What is, however, abnormal are the prolonged drought conditions rippling across the state, he said. The Roaring Fork Valley has endured severe, extreme or exceptional drought for nearly a year, according to drought.gov. Following record-low snowfall this winter, the Colorado Headwaters River Basin’s Snow Water Equivalent — used to measure the snowpack — currently sits in the zero percentile compared to data collected over the previous 40 years.
“Every piece of vegetation, in the wildland or anywhere, has been stressed,” Goodwin said of the effect of local drought. “Is stressed.”
Fire agencies are predicting what’s to come.
The National Interagency Fire Center predicted in its April 1 outlook that the Rocky Mountains will see a spring “green-up to limit fire growth” in May, but by June “the heat and long-term drought will increase the [fire] potential on the West Slope and Front Range of Colorado.” The Front Range, the center said, is already approaching moisture values in high-
elevation, large-diameter fuels consistent with a fire season’s typical peak.
The center predicted fire potential on the Western Slope and Front Range to remain above normal in June and July, despite the traditional onset of the monsoon season.
“This elevated potential will continue into July regardless of the progression of the monsoon,” the center states. “As any initial monsoon moisture surges would be accompanied by drier thunderstorms increasing ignition potential.”
At this point, meteorologists can’t predict the significance of an anticipated monsoon season with any degree of accuracy, according to National Weather Service Meteorologist Lucas Boyer. He said, however, the latter half of the summer is “going to trend wet” based on the 50-year record the service keeps.
“Statistically, it’s likely that we will see moisture then,” he said. “But it’s not guaranteed.”
Though conditions are ripe for major fire activity, Goodwin said a wildfire is contingent on the existence of an ignition source and conducive fire conditions.
“If we don’t get a start — a fire start — on the wrong day with the wrong winds and all that, then you won’t have that fire,” he said, adding later, “We’ve had years where conditions for a wildfire and extreme wildfire were horrible … and we just didn’t get starts that year. We didn’t have big dry lighting cells coming through and all that.”
Regardless of what’s to come, he said the fire district, along with others in the area, are as prepared as they can be, increasing their seasonal staffing to anticipate the fire season and preparing a wildfire messaging program to keep the public informed.
“I think this year, the conditions are extraordinary. It’s ready. Conditions are ripe for that,” Goodwin said of wildfire conditions. “But I will say we all know that, and we train together. We work together. We’re preparing together.”